Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw Prediction & Preview
III Liga (Poland) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
III LIGA (POLAND)
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw
Model pick: Jaroslaw (70%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.39 – 1.94
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg | Jaroslaw |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
*Siarka Tarnobrzeg shown at home, Jaroslaw shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Siarka Tarnobrzeg — last 5
DLWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Jaroslaw — last 5
DLWDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Siarka Tarnobrzeg (home) | Jaroslaw (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
III Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 62%
Use these III Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.39 vs 1.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw (1X) | 25% |
| Double chance — Jaroslaw or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Siarka Tarnobrzeg clean sheet | 14% |
| Jaroslaw clean sheet | 68% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Jaroslaw is the model's most likely outcome at
70%. Despite playing away, Jaroslaw edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw — FAQ
Who will win Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw?
Our statistical model makes Jaroslaw the most likely result at 70%. Full probabilities: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 9%, draw 21%, Jaroslaw 70%.
Will both teams score in Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw?
Expected goals are 0.39 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg and 1.94 for Jaroslaw — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw is 25%.