Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice Prediction & Preview
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CZECH LIGA (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice
Model pick: Sigma Olomouc (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.7 – 0.94
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sigma Olomouc | Pardubice |
|---|
| League position | #6 (7 pts) | #14 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Sigma Olomouc shown at home, Pardubice shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sigma Olomouc — last 5
WLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Pardubice — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sigma Olomouc (home) | Pardubice (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 55% |
| Top scorer | – | Vojtech Patrak (6) |
Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Czech Liga (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.7 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Sigma Olomouc or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Pardubice or draw (X2) | 45% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Sigma Olomouc clean sheet | 39% |
| Pardubice clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sigma Olomouc is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Sigma Olomouc are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice — FAQ
Who will win Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model makes Sigma Olomouc the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 50%, draw 26%, Pardubice 24%.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
Expected goals are 1.7 for Sigma Olomouc and 0.94 for Pardubice — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sigma Olomouc vs Pardubice?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Sigma Olomouc or draw is 79%.