Silva vs Celtiga Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Silva vs Celtiga
Model pick: Silva (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Silva | Celtiga |
|---|
| League position | #15 (36 pts) | #13 (40 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.3 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 35% | 18% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 2.6 |
*Silva shown at home, Celtiga shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Silva — last 5
DWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Celtiga — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Silva (home) | Celtiga (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-8 in 17 (1.1 / 1.3 goals per game) | 3-4-10 in 17 (1.1 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 53% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Silva or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Celtiga or draw (X2) | 58% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Silva clean sheet | 31% |
| Celtiga clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Silva is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Silva are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Silva vs Celtiga — FAQ
Who will win Silva vs Celtiga?
Our statistical model makes Silva the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Silva 40%, draw 27%, Celtiga 32%.
Will both teams score in Silva vs Celtiga?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Silva vs Celtiga?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Silva and 1.18 for Celtiga — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Silva vs Celtiga?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Silva or draw is 68%.