Sivasspor vs Esenler Erokspor Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Sivasspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Model pick: Esenler Erokspor (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sivasspor | Esenler Erokspor |
|---|
| League position | #7 (0 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Sivasspor shown at home, Esenler Erokspor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sivasspor — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Esenler Erokspor — last 5
WWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sivasspor (home) | Esenler Erokspor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Valon Ethemi (6) | Hamza Catakovic (11) |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sivasspor or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Esenler Erokspor or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Sivasspor clean sheet | 28% |
| Esenler Erokspor clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Esenler Erokspor is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Esenler Erokspor edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sivasspor vs Esenler Erokspor — FAQ
Who will win Sivasspor vs Esenler Erokspor?
Our statistical model makes Esenler Erokspor the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Sivasspor 30%, draw 28%, Esenler Erokspor 42%.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Esenler Erokspor?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sivasspor vs Esenler Erokspor?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Sivasspor and 1.27 for Esenler Erokspor — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sivasspor vs Esenler Erokspor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Sivasspor or draw is 59%.