Sivasspor vs Manisa FK Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Sivasspor vs Manisa FK
Model pick: Sivasspor (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.29 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sivasspor | Manisa FK |
|---|
| League position | #15 (1 pts) | #1 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
*Sivasspor shown at home, Manisa FK shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sivasspor — last 5
LWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Manisa FK — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sivasspor (home) | Manisa FK (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Valon Ethemi (6) | Lois Diony (15) |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.29 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sivasspor or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Manisa FK or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Sivasspor clean sheet | 37% |
| Manisa FK clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sivasspor is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Sivasspor are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sivasspor vs Manisa FK — FAQ
Who will win Sivasspor vs Manisa FK?
Our statistical model makes Sivasspor the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Sivasspor 42%, draw 29%, Manisa FK 30%.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Manisa FK?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sivasspor vs Manisa FK?
Expected goals are 1.29 for Sivasspor and 1.0 for Manisa FK — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sivasspor vs Manisa FK?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Sivasspor or draw is 71%.