Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969 Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969
Model pick: Mardin 1969 (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.03 – 0.95
Total goals: 1.0
Over 2.5: 20%
Both teams score: 15%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sivasspor | Mardin 1969 |
|---|
| League position | #16 (2 pts) | #2 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 1.25 / 0.25 |
*Sivasspor shown at home, Mardin 1969 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sivasspor — last 5
WLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Mardin 1969 — last 5
LDWW
On the road: clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sivasspor (home) | Mardin 1969 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Valon Ethemi (6) | – |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.03 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (38%) |
| Double chance — Sivasspor or draw (1X) | 40% |
| Double chance — Mardin 1969 or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 61% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 2% / 98% |
| Sivasspor clean sheet | 39% |
| Mardin 1969 clean sheet | 97% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Mardin 1969 is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Mardin 1969 edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (80% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969 — FAQ
Who will win Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969?
Our statistical model makes Mardin 1969 the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Sivasspor 26%, draw 32%, Mardin 1969 41%.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969?
The model gives a 15% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969?
Expected goals are 0.03 for Sivasspor and 0.95 for Mardin 1969 — about 1.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (38%). Double chance for Sivasspor or draw is 40%.