SJ Earthquakes vs Minnesota United Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
SJ Earthquakes vs Minnesota United
Model pick: SJ Earthquakes (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.52
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| SJ Earthquakes | Minnesota United |
|---|
| League position | #2 (32 pts) | #8 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 2.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.8 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*SJ Earthquakes shown at home, Minnesota United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
SJ Earthquakes — last 5
LLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Minnesota United — last 5
DLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 64% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | SJ Earthquakes (home) | Minnesota United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (2.3 / 0.9 goals per game) | 4-1-3 in 8 (1.5 / 2.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 68% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 64% |
| Top scorer | Preston Judd (11) | Tai Baribo (12) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.59 vs 1.52):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — SJ Earthquakes or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Minnesota United or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| SJ Earthquakes clean sheet | 22% |
| Minnesota United clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
SJ Earthquakes is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. SJ Earthquakes are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ SJ Earthquakes vs Minnesota United — FAQ
Who will win SJ Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?
Our statistical model makes SJ Earthquakes the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: SJ Earthquakes 44%, draw 24%, Minnesota United 31%.
Will both teams score in SJ Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in SJ Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?
Expected goals are 1.59 for SJ Earthquakes and 1.52 for Minnesota United — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in SJ Earthquakes vs Minnesota United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for SJ Earthquakes or draw is 63%.