SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City
Model pick: SJ Earthquakes (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.87 – 1.58
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 63%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| SJ Earthquakes | St. Louis City |
|---|
| League position | #2 (32 pts) | #10 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.3 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.4 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*SJ Earthquakes shown at home, St. Louis City shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
SJ Earthquakes — last 5
WLLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Louis City — last 5
DWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 11% of the time; 70% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | SJ Earthquakes (home) | St. Louis City (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-2 in 7 (2.3 / 0.9 goals per game) | 1-3-4 in 8 (0.6 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 11% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Top scorer | Preston Judd (11) | Nicolas Mercau (13) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.87 vs 1.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — SJ Earthquakes or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — St. Louis City or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| SJ Earthquakes clean sheet | 21% |
| St. Louis City clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
SJ Earthquakes is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. SJ Earthquakes are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City — FAQ
Who will win SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
Our statistical model makes SJ Earthquakes the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: SJ Earthquakes 46%, draw 24%, St. Louis City 31%.
Will both teams score in SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
The model gives a 63% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
Expected goals are 1.87 for SJ Earthquakes and 1.58 for St. Louis City — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for SJ Earthquakes or draw is 67%.