SKA Khabarovsk vs Leningradets Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
SKA Khabarovsk vs Leningradets
Model pick: SKA Khabarovsk (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.89 – 0.5
Total goals: 1.4
Over 2.5: 29%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| SKA Khabarovsk | Leningradets |
|---|
| League position | #18 (3 pts) | #16 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 2.0 | 0.3 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.4 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*SKA Khabarovsk shown at home, Leningradets shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
SKA Khabarovsk — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 15% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Leningradets — last 5
WLDDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | SKA Khabarovsk (home) | Leningradets (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-3 in 4 (0.8 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.3 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 15% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 75% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.66
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 49%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.89 vs 0.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (25%) |
| Double chance — SKA Khabarovsk or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Leningradets or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 63% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| SKA Khabarovsk clean sheet | 61% |
| Leningradets clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
SKA Khabarovsk is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. SKA Khabarovsk are backed at home, where they average 0.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (71% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ SKA Khabarovsk vs Leningradets — FAQ
Who will win SKA Khabarovsk vs Leningradets?
Our statistical model makes SKA Khabarovsk the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: SKA Khabarovsk 42%, draw 37%, Leningradets 21%.
Will both teams score in SKA Khabarovsk vs Leningradets?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in SKA Khabarovsk vs Leningradets?
Expected goals are 0.89 for SKA Khabarovsk and 0.5 for Leningradets — about 1.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in SKA Khabarovsk vs Leningradets?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (25%). Double chance for SKA Khabarovsk or draw is 80%.