Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Gorica Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Gorica
Model pick: Slaven Koprivnica (39%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.16
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Slaven Koprivnica | HNK Gorica |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 4.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 0.6 / 2.2 |
*Slaven Koprivnica shown at home, HNK Gorica shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Slaven Koprivnica — last 5
DWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
HNK Gorica — last 5
LLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Slaven Koprivnica (home) | HNK Gorica (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 4.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Ilija Nestorovski (4) | Jurica Prsir (4) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 1.16):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Slaven Koprivnica or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — HNK Gorica or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Slaven Koprivnica clean sheet | 31% |
| HNK Gorica clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Slaven Koprivnica is the model's most likely outcome at
39%. Slaven Koprivnica are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Gorica — FAQ
Who will win Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Gorica?
Our statistical model makes Slaven Koprivnica the most likely result at 39%. Full probabilities: Slaven Koprivnica 39%, draw 29%, HNK Gorica 32%.
Will both teams score in Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Gorica?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Gorica?
Expected goals are 1.34 for Slaven Koprivnica and 1.16 for HNK Gorica — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Slaven Koprivnica vs HNK Gorica?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Slaven Koprivnica or draw is 68%.