Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb
Model pick: Slaven Koprivnica (37%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.36 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Slaven Koprivnica | Lokomotiva Zagreb |
|---|
| League position | #9 (3 pts) | #6 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 2.0 | 1.3 / 2.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.4 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
*Slaven Koprivnica shown at home, Lokomotiva Zagreb shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Slaven Koprivnica — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiva Zagreb — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Slaven Koprivnica (home) | Lokomotiva Zagreb (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (1.3 / 2.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Ilija Nestorovski (4) | Marko Pajac (6) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.61
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.36 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Slaven Koprivnica or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiva Zagreb or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Slaven Koprivnica clean sheet | 26% |
| Lokomotiva Zagreb clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Slaven Koprivnica is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Slaven Koprivnica are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb — FAQ
Who will win Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Our statistical model makes Slaven Koprivnica the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Slaven Koprivnica 37%, draw 27%, Lokomotiva Zagreb 36%.
Will both teams score in Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
Expected goals are 1.36 for Slaven Koprivnica and 1.33 for Lokomotiva Zagreb — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Slaven Koprivnica vs Lokomotiva Zagreb?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Slaven Koprivnica or draw is 64%.