Slaven Koprivnica vs Varaždin Prediction & Preview
HNL (Croatia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
HNL (CROATIA)
Slaven Koprivnica vs Varaždin
Model pick: Varaždin (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Slaven Koprivnica | Varaždin |
|---|
| League position | #9 (0 pts) | #5 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 2.4 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Slaven Koprivnica shown at home, Varaždin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Slaven Koprivnica — last 5
LLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Varaždin — last 5
WWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Slaven Koprivnica (home) | Varaždin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Ilija Nestorovski (4) | Ivan Mamut (6) |
HNL (Croatia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 48%
Use these HNL (Croatia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Slaven Koprivnica or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Varaždin or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Slaven Koprivnica clean sheet | 30% |
| Varaždin clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Varaždin is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Varaždin edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Slaven Koprivnica vs Varaždin — FAQ
Who will win Slaven Koprivnica vs Varaždin?
Our statistical model makes Varaždin the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Slaven Koprivnica 35%, draw 29%, Varaždin 37%.
Will both teams score in Slaven Koprivnica vs Varaždin?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Slaven Koprivnica vs Varaždin?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Slaven Koprivnica and 1.2 for Varaždin — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Slaven Koprivnica vs Varaždin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Slaven Koprivnica or draw is 63%.