Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia
Model pick: Levski Sofia (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.74 – 1.68
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Slavia Sofia | Levski Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #9 (2 pts) | #1 (12 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 0.6 |
*Slavia Sofia shown at home, Levski Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Slavia Sofia — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Levski Sofia — last 5
WDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Slavia Sofia (home) | Levski Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.74 vs 1.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Slavia Sofia or draw (1X) | 40% |
| Double chance — Levski Sofia or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Slavia Sofia clean sheet | 19% |
| Levski Sofia clean sheet | 48% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Levski Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Despite playing away, Levski Sofia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Levski Sofia the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Slavia Sofia 16%, draw 24%, Levski Sofia 60%.
Will both teams score in Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
Expected goals are 0.74 for Slavia Sofia and 1.68 for Levski Sofia — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Slavia Sofia or draw is 40%.