Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia
Model pick: Slavia Sofia (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.68 – 0.87
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Slavia Sofia | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #8 (6 pts) | #10 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
*Slavia Sofia shown at home, Septemvri Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Slavia Sofia — last 5
WDLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
Septemvri Sofia — last 5
DLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Slavia Sofia (home) | Septemvri Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-2 in 3 (0.7 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Leandro Godoy (9) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.68 vs 0.87):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Slavia Sofia or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Septemvri Sofia or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Slavia Sofia clean sheet | 42% |
| Septemvri Sofia clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Slavia Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Slavia Sofia are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Slavia Sofia the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Slavia Sofia 47%, draw 27%, Septemvri Sofia 26%.
Will both teams score in Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
Expected goals are 1.68 for Slavia Sofia and 0.87 for Septemvri Sofia — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Slavia Sofia or draw is 81%.