Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Egypt) · Sep 08, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (EGYPT)
Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra
Model pick: Ceramica Cleopatra (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.25
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Smouha | Ceramica Cleopatra |
|---|
| League position | #6 (31 pts) | #4 (38 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.2 |
*Smouha shown at home, Ceramica Cleopatra shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Smouha — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Ceramica Cleopatra — last 5
LDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Smouha (home) | Ceramica Cleopatra (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-2 in 10 (1.2 / 0.5 goals per game) | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.1 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 35% |
| Top scorer | Pape Badji (4) | Fagrie Lakay (5) |
Premier League (Egypt) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Premier League (Egypt) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Smouha or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — Ceramica Cleopatra or draw (X2) | 70% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Smouha clean sheet | 29% |
| Ceramica Cleopatra clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ceramica Cleopatra is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, Ceramica Cleopatra edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra — FAQ
Who will win Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra?
Our statistical model makes Ceramica Cleopatra the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Smouha 30%, draw 29%, Ceramica Cleopatra 41%.
Will both teams score in Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Smouha and 1.25 for Ceramica Cleopatra — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Smouha vs Ceramica Cleopatra?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Smouha or draw is 58%.