Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo
Model pick: Socuéllamos (54%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.45 – 0.6
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Socuéllamos | Villarrobledo |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
*Socuéllamos shown at home, Villarrobledo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Socuéllamos — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Villarrobledo — last 5
WLDDL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Socuéllamos (home) | Villarrobledo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 42% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.45 vs 0.6):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Socuéllamos or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Villarrobledo or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Socuéllamos clean sheet | 55% |
| Villarrobledo clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Socuéllamos is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Socuéllamos are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo — FAQ
Who will win Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo?
Our statistical model makes Socuéllamos the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Socuéllamos 54%, draw 28%, Villarrobledo 17%.
Will both teams score in Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo?
Expected goals are 1.45 for Socuéllamos and 0.6 for Villarrobledo — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Socuéllamos vs Villarrobledo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (19%). Double chance for Socuéllamos or draw is 85%.