Sogdiana vs Andijan Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 06, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Sogdiana vs Andijan
Model pick: Sogdiana (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.77 – 1.2
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sogdiana | Andijan |
|---|
| League position | #14 (12 pts) | #8 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.6 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.4 | 1.8 / 1.4 |
*Sogdiana shown at home, Andijan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sogdiana — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Andijan — last 5
WDLDW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sogdiana (home) | Andijan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-1-4 in 7 (2.0 / 2.6 goals per game) | 2-2-3 in 7 (1.4 / 1.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.77 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Sogdiana or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Andijan or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Sogdiana clean sheet | 30% |
| Andijan clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sogdiana is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Sogdiana are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sogdiana vs Andijan — FAQ
Who will win Sogdiana vs Andijan?
Our statistical model makes Sogdiana the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Sogdiana 48%, draw 25%, Andijan 27%.
Will both teams score in Sogdiana vs Andijan?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sogdiana vs Andijan?
Expected goals are 1.77 for Sogdiana and 1.2 for Andijan — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sogdiana vs Andijan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Sogdiana or draw is 74%.