Sogdiana vs Qizilqum Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 18, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Sogdiana vs Qizilqum
Model pick: Sogdiana (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.63 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sogdiana | Qizilqum |
|---|
| League position | #12 (18 pts) | #14 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 2.2 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
*Sogdiana shown at home, Qizilqum shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sogdiana — last 5
WLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Qizilqum — last 5
LDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sogdiana (home) | Qizilqum (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-4 in 8 (1.9 / 2.2 goals per game) | 2-1-5 in 8 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.63 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sogdiana or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Qizilqum or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Sogdiana clean sheet | 40% |
| Qizilqum clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sogdiana is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Sogdiana are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sogdiana vs Qizilqum — FAQ
Who will win Sogdiana vs Qizilqum?
Our statistical model makes Sogdiana the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Sogdiana 51%, draw 26%, Qizilqum 23%.
Will both teams score in Sogdiana vs Qizilqum?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sogdiana vs Qizilqum?
Expected goals are 1.63 for Sogdiana and 0.92 for Qizilqum — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sogdiana vs Qizilqum?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Sogdiana or draw is 79%.