Sogndal vs Ranheim Prediction & Preview
Adeccoligaen (Norway) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
ADECCOLIGAEN (NORWAY)
Sogndal vs Ranheim
Model pick: Sogndal (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.7 – 1.44
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sogndal | Ranheim |
|---|
| League position | #12 (15 pts) | #8 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 2.0 | 1.5 / 3.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 17% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 2.2 | 2.4 / 2.4 |
*Sogndal shown at home, Ranheim shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sogndal — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Ranheim — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sogndal (home) | Ranheim (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-2 in 6 (2.5 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-0-5 in 6 (1.5 / 3.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 62% |
Adeccoligaen (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.09
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Adeccoligaen (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.7 vs 1.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Sogndal or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Ranheim or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Sogndal clean sheet | 24% |
| Ranheim clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sogndal is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Sogndal are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sogndal vs Ranheim — FAQ
Who will win Sogndal vs Ranheim?
Our statistical model makes Sogndal the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Sogndal 42%, draw 25%, Ranheim 33%.
Will both teams score in Sogndal vs Ranheim?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sogndal vs Ranheim?
Expected goals are 1.7 for Sogndal and 1.44 for Ranheim — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sogndal vs Ranheim?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Sogndal or draw is 67%.