Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Hoffenheim II Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Hoffenheim II
Model pick: Hoffenheim II (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.75 – 1.71
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sonnenhof Großaspach | Hoffenheim II |
|---|
| League position | #18 (3 pts) | #3 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.6 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Sonnenhof Großaspach shown at home, Hoffenheim II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sonnenhof Großaspach — last 5
LWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Hoffenheim II — last 5
LLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sonnenhof Großaspach (home) | Hoffenheim II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (0.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 75% |
| Top scorer | – | Deniz Zeitler (11) |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.75 vs 1.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Sonnenhof Großaspach or draw (1X) | 40% |
| Double chance — Hoffenheim II or draw (X2) | 84% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Sonnenhof Großaspach clean sheet | 18% |
| Hoffenheim II clean sheet | 47% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hoffenheim II is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Despite playing away, Hoffenheim II edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Hoffenheim II — FAQ
Who will win Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Hoffenheim II?
Our statistical model makes Hoffenheim II the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Sonnenhof Großaspach 18%, draw 25%, Hoffenheim II 56%.
Will both teams score in Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Hoffenheim II?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Hoffenheim II?
Expected goals are 0.75 for Sonnenhof Großaspach and 1.71 for Hoffenheim II — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Hoffenheim II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Sonnenhof Großaspach or draw is 40%.