Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Ingolstadt Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (GERMANY)
Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Ingolstadt
Model pick: Ingolstadt (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.72 – 1.76
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sonnenhof Großaspach | Ingolstadt |
|---|
| League position | #13 (3 pts) | #15 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.6 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Sonnenhof Großaspach shown at home, Ingolstadt shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sonnenhof Großaspach — last 5
DLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Ingolstadt — last 5
WLLDD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sonnenhof Großaspach (home) | Ingolstadt (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 57% |
| Top scorer | – | Dennis Kaygin (5) |
3 Liga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%
Use these 3 Liga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.72 vs 1.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Sonnenhof Großaspach or draw (1X) | 38% |
| Double chance — Ingolstadt or draw (X2) | 85% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Sonnenhof Großaspach clean sheet | 17% |
| Ingolstadt clean sheet | 49% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ingolstadt is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Ingolstadt edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Ingolstadt — FAQ
Who will win Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Ingolstadt?
Our statistical model makes Ingolstadt the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Sonnenhof Großaspach 28%, draw 25%, Ingolstadt 47%.
Will both teams score in Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Ingolstadt?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Ingolstadt?
Expected goals are 0.72 for Sonnenhof Großaspach and 1.76 for Ingolstadt — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sonnenhof Großaspach vs Ingolstadt?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Sonnenhof Großaspach or draw is 38%.