Southend United vs Yeovil Town Prediction & Preview
Conference (England) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CONFERENCE (ENGLAND)
Southend United vs Yeovil Town
Model pick: Yeovil Town (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.84
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Southend United | Yeovil Town |
|---|
| League position | #7 (10 pts) | #4 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*Southend United shown at home, Yeovil Town shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Southend United — last 5
WWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Yeovil Town — last 5
DDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Southend United (home) | Yeovil Town (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 48% |
Conference (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 69%
Use these Conference (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.08 vs 1.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Southend United or draw (1X) | 45% |
| Double chance — Yeovil Town or draw (X2) | 78% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Southend United clean sheet | 16% |
| Yeovil Town clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Yeovil Town is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, Yeovil Town edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Southend United vs Yeovil Town — FAQ
Who will win Southend United vs Yeovil Town?
Our statistical model makes Yeovil Town the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Southend United 24%, draw 24%, Yeovil Town 52%.
Will both teams score in Southend United vs Yeovil Town?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Southend United vs Yeovil Town?
Expected goals are 1.08 for Southend United and 1.84 for Yeovil Town — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Southend United vs Yeovil Town?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Southend United or draw is 45%.