Sp. Carapegua vs Benjamin Aceval Prediction & Preview
Division Intermedia (Paraguay) · Sep 10, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION INTERMEDIA (PARAGUAY)
Sp. Carapegua vs Benjamin Aceval
Model pick: Benjamin Aceval (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 1.5
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sp. Carapegua | Benjamin Aceval |
|---|
| League position | #9 (28 pts) | #4 (38 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 45% | 55% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 1.8 |
*Sp. Carapegua shown at home, Benjamin Aceval shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sp. Carapegua — last 5
WLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Benjamin Aceval — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sp. Carapegua (home) | Benjamin Aceval (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-5 in 11 (1.3 / 1.5 goals per game) | 6-2-3 in 11 (1.9 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
Division Intermedia (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 37%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Division Intermedia (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 1.5):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Sp. Carapegua or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Benjamin Aceval or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Sp. Carapegua clean sheet | 22% |
| Benjamin Aceval clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Benjamin Aceval is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Benjamin Aceval edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sp. Carapegua vs Benjamin Aceval — FAQ
Who will win Sp. Carapegua vs Benjamin Aceval?
Our statistical model makes Benjamin Aceval the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Sp. Carapegua 36%, draw 26%, Benjamin Aceval 38%.
Will both teams score in Sp. Carapegua vs Benjamin Aceval?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sp. Carapegua vs Benjamin Aceval?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Sp. Carapegua and 1.5 for Benjamin Aceval — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sp. Carapegua vs Benjamin Aceval?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Sp. Carapegua or draw is 61%.