Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi
Model pick: Dinamo Tbilisi (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.88 – 1.69
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Spaeri | Dinamo Tbilisi |
|---|
| League position | #8 (22 pts) | #3 (31 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 44% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
*Spaeri shown at home, Dinamo Tbilisi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Spaeri — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Dinamo Tbilisi — last 5
WDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 38% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Spaeri (home) | Dinamo Tbilisi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 4-4-1 in 9 (1.8 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 49% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.88 vs 1.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Spaeri or draw (1X) | 43% |
| Double chance — Dinamo Tbilisi or draw (X2) | 81% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Spaeri clean sheet | 18% |
| Dinamo Tbilisi clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dinamo Tbilisi is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Dinamo Tbilisi edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi — FAQ
Who will win Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Our statistical model makes Dinamo Tbilisi the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Spaeri 22%, draw 26%, Dinamo Tbilisi 53%.
Will both teams score in Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
Expected goals are 0.88 for Spaeri and 1.69 for Dinamo Tbilisi — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Spaeri vs Dinamo Tbilisi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Spaeri or draw is 43%.