Spaeri vs Samgurali Prediction & Preview
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
UMAGLESI LIGA (GEORGIA)
Spaeri vs Samgurali
Model pick: Samgurali (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.21 – 1.68
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Spaeri | Samgurali |
|---|
| League position | #9 (22 pts) | #7 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 27% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
*Spaeri shown at home, Samgurali shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Spaeri — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Samgurali — last 5
LWDWW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Spaeri (home) | Samgurali (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-4 in 10 (1.6 / 1.4 goals per game) | 3-2-6 in 11 (1.2 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% |
Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.69
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Umaglesi Liga (Georgia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.21 vs 1.68):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Spaeri or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Samgurali or draw (X2) | 72% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Spaeri clean sheet | 19% |
| Samgurali clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Samgurali is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Samgurali edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Spaeri vs Samgurali — FAQ
Who will win Spaeri vs Samgurali?
Our statistical model makes Samgurali the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Spaeri 28%, draw 25%, Samgurali 46%.
Will both teams score in Spaeri vs Samgurali?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Spaeri vs Samgurali?
Expected goals are 1.21 for Spaeri and 1.68 for Samgurali — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Spaeri vs Samgurali?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Spaeri or draw is 52%.