Sparta Brno vs Humpolec Prediction & Preview
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 08:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA 4 (CZECH_REPUBLIC)
Sparta Brno vs Humpolec
Model pick: Humpolec (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.46 – 1.42
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sparta Brno | Humpolec |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.6 | 1.2 / 1.4 |
*Sparta Brno shown at home, Humpolec shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sparta Brno — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 60% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Humpolec — last 5
WDLDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sparta Brno (home) | Humpolec (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 60% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 33% |
Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.72
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 37%
Over 2.5: 75%
BTTS: 67%
Use these Liga 4 (Czech_Republic) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.46 vs 1.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (22%) |
| Double chance — Sparta Brno or draw (1X) | 39% |
| Double chance — Humpolec or draw (X2) | 88% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Sparta Brno clean sheet | 24% |
| Humpolec clean sheet | 63% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Humpolec is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Despite playing away, Humpolec edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sparta Brno vs Humpolec — FAQ
Who will win Sparta Brno vs Humpolec?
Our statistical model makes Humpolec the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Sparta Brno 14%, draw 29%, Humpolec 57%.
Will both teams score in Sparta Brno vs Humpolec?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sparta Brno vs Humpolec?
Expected goals are 0.46 for Sparta Brno and 1.42 for Humpolec — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sparta Brno vs Humpolec?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (22%). Double chance for Sparta Brno or draw is 39%.