Sparta Lichtenberg vs Berliner AK 07 Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Sparta Lichtenberg vs Berliner AK 07
Model pick: Draw (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.33 – 0.37
Total goals: 0.7
Over 2.5: 14%
Both teams score: 26%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sparta Lichtenberg | Berliner AK 07 |
|---|
| League position | #11 (2 pts) | #4 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.0 |
*Sparta Lichtenberg shown at home, Berliner AK 07 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sparta Lichtenberg — last 5
WWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Berliner AK 07 — last 5
LWDW
On the road: clean sheet 50% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sparta Lichtenberg (home) | Berliner AK 07 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 0% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.59
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.33 vs 0.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (50%) |
| Double chance — Sparta Lichtenberg or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Berliner AK 07 or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 44% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Sparta Lichtenberg clean sheet | 69% |
| Berliner AK 07 clean sheet | 72% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (86% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sparta Lichtenberg vs Berliner AK 07 — FAQ
Who will win Sparta Lichtenberg vs Berliner AK 07?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Sparta Lichtenberg 22%, draw 52%, Berliner AK 07 25%.
Will both teams score in Sparta Lichtenberg vs Berliner AK 07?
The model gives a 26% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sparta Lichtenberg vs Berliner AK 07?
Expected goals are 0.33 for Sparta Lichtenberg and 0.37 for Berliner AK 07 — about 0.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sparta Lichtenberg vs Berliner AK 07?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (50%). Double chance for Sparta Lichtenberg or draw is 76%.