Sparta Lichtenberg vs Schwerin Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Sparta Lichtenberg vs Schwerin
Model pick: Schwerin (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 1.34
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sparta Lichtenberg | Schwerin |
|---|
| League position | #9 (1 pts) | #3 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.75 / 1.5 | 0.67 / 2.0 |
*Sparta Lichtenberg shown at home, Schwerin shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sparta Lichtenberg — last 5
WWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Schwerin — last 5
LLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sparta Lichtenberg (home) | Schwerin (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.43
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 1.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sparta Lichtenberg or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Schwerin or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Sparta Lichtenberg clean sheet | 26% |
| Schwerin clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Schwerin is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Schwerin edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sparta Lichtenberg vs Schwerin — FAQ
Who will win Sparta Lichtenberg vs Schwerin?
Our statistical model makes Schwerin the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Sparta Lichtenberg 30%, draw 28%, Schwerin 42%.
Will both teams score in Sparta Lichtenberg vs Schwerin?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sparta Lichtenberg vs Schwerin?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Sparta Lichtenberg and 1.34 for Schwerin — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sparta Lichtenberg vs Schwerin?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Sparta Lichtenberg or draw is 56%.