Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord Prediction & Preview
Eredivisie (Netherlands) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 10:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EREDIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord
Model pick: Feyenoord (52%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.82
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sparta Rotterdam | Feyenoord |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #29 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 1.0 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 3.2 / 0.8 |
*Sparta Rotterdam shown at home, Feyenoord shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam — last 5
WLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Feyenoord — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sparta Rotterdam (home) | Feyenoord (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 0-0-4 in 4 (1.0 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 60% |
| Top scorer | Shunsuke Mito (2) | Tsuyoshi Watanabe (2) |
Eredivisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.09
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Eredivisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.03 vs 1.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1X) | 44% |
| Double chance — Feyenoord or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 32% / 68% |
| Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet | 16% |
| Feyenoord clean sheet | 36% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Feyenoord is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Despite playing away, Feyenoord edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord — FAQ
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model makes Feyenoord the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 23%, draw 25%, Feyenoord 52%.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
Expected goals are 1.03 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.82 for Feyenoord — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Feyenoord?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Sparta Rotterdam or draw is 44%.