Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918 Prediction & Preview
B PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
B PFG (BULGARIA)
Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918
Model pick: Spartak Pleven (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.59 – 2.57
Total goals: 5.2
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 72%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Spartak Pleven | Hebar 1918 |
|---|
| League position | #15 (7 pts) | #13 (8 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.7 / 1.3 | 2.0 / 2.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Spartak Pleven shown at home, Hebar 1918 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Spartak Pleven — last 5
DLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Hebar 1918 — last 5
LWWDD
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Spartak Pleven (home) | Hebar 1918 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-2 in 3 (0.7 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-1-2 in 4 (2.0 / 2.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 54% |
B PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.56
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%
Use these B PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.59 vs 2.57):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (6%) |
| Double chance — Spartak Pleven or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Hebar 1918 or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 82% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Spartak Pleven clean sheet | 8% |
| Hebar 1918 clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Spartak Pleven is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Spartak Pleven are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.2, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918 — FAQ
Who will win Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918?
Our statistical model makes Spartak Pleven the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Spartak Pleven 40%, draw 20%, Hebar 1918 40%.
Will both teams score in Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918?
The model gives a 72% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918?
Expected goals are 2.59 for Spartak Pleven and 2.57 for Hebar 1918 — about 5.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Spartak Pleven vs Hebar 1918?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (6%). Double chance for Spartak Pleven or draw is 59%.