Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia
Model pick: CSKA Sofia (64%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.75 – 1.95
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Spartak Varna | CSKA Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #7 (8 pts) | #3 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Spartak Varna shown at home, CSKA Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Spartak Varna — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
CSKA Sofia — last 5
WLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 47% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Spartak Varna (home) | CSKA Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-1 in 4 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 36% |
| Top scorer | Georg Stojanovski (7) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.75 vs 1.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Spartak Varna or draw (1X) | 34% |
| Double chance — CSKA Sofia or draw (X2) | 86% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Spartak Varna clean sheet | 14% |
| CSKA Sofia clean sheet | 47% |
🎯 Our Verdict
CSKA Sofia is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Despite playing away, CSKA Sofia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
Our statistical model makes CSKA Sofia the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Spartak Varna 14%, draw 22%, CSKA Sofia 64%.
Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
Expected goals are 0.75 for Spartak Varna and 1.95 for CSKA Sofia — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Spartak Varna vs CSKA Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (13%). Double chance for Spartak Varna or draw is 34%.