Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 03, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Model pick: Lokomotiv Plovdiv (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Spartak Varna | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|
| League position | #3 (4 pts) | #7 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
*Spartak Varna shown at home, Lokomotiv Plovdiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Spartak Varna — last 5
LDWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv — last 5
DWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Spartak Varna (home) | Lokomotiv Plovdiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (2.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Georg Stojanovski (7) | Mascote (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Spartak Varna or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Spartak Varna clean sheet | 27% |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lokomotiv Plovdiv is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Lokomotiv Plovdiv edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — FAQ
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Our statistical model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Spartak Varna 33%, draw 29%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 38%.
Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Spartak Varna and 1.32 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Spartak Varna or draw is 60%.