Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets
Model pick: Ludogorets (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.68 – 2.44
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Spartak Varna | Ludogorets |
|---|
| League position | #8 (7 pts) | #1 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 2.5 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Spartak Varna shown at home, Ludogorets shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Spartak Varna — last 5
WWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 56% of home games go over 2.5.
Ludogorets — last 5
DWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 47% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Spartak Varna (home) | Ludogorets (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.5 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 47% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Georg Stojanovski (7) | – |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.68 vs 2.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (13%) |
| Double chance — Spartak Varna or draw (1X) | 24% |
| Double chance — Ludogorets or draw (X2) | 92% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Spartak Varna clean sheet | 9% |
| Ludogorets clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ludogorets is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Despite playing away, Ludogorets edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets — FAQ
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Our statistical model makes Ludogorets the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: Spartak Varna 11%, draw 18%, Ludogorets 71%.
Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Expected goals are 0.68 for Spartak Varna and 2.44 for Ludogorets — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (13%). Double chance for Spartak Varna or draw is 24%.