Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia
Model pick: Spartak Varna (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.11
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Spartak Varna | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|
| League position | #5 (7 pts) | #13 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 2.0 |
*Spartak Varna shown at home, Septemvri Sofia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Spartak Varna — last 5
DWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Septemvri Sofia — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Spartak Varna (home) | Septemvri Sofia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Georg Stojanovski (7) | Leandro Godoy (9) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.67 vs 1.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Spartak Varna or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Septemvri Sofia or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Spartak Varna clean sheet | 33% |
| Septemvri Sofia clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Spartak Varna is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Spartak Varna are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia — FAQ
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our statistical model makes Spartak Varna the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Spartak Varna 48%, draw 26%, Septemvri Sofia 27%.
Will both teams score in Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
Expected goals are 1.67 for Spartak Varna and 1.11 for Septemvri Sofia — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Spartak Varna or draw is 75%.