Spisska Nova Ves vs Bardejov Prediction & Preview
3 Liga (Slovakia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 LIGA (SLOVAKIA)
Spisska Nova Ves vs Bardejov
Model pick: Spisska Nova Ves (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.89 – 0.64
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 32%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Spisska Nova Ves | Bardejov |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 0.6 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Spisska Nova Ves shown at home, Bardejov shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Spisska Nova Ves — last 5
WWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Bardejov — last 5
WLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Spisska Nova Ves (home) | Bardejov (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 80% |
3 Liga (Slovakia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.48
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 15%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 67%
BTTS: 56%
Use these 3 Liga (Slovakia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.89 vs 0.64):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (22%) |
| Double chance — Spisska Nova Ves or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Bardejov or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 64% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Spisska Nova Ves clean sheet | 53% |
| Bardejov clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Spisska Nova Ves is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Spisska Nova Ves are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (68% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Spisska Nova Ves vs Bardejov — FAQ
Who will win Spisska Nova Ves vs Bardejov?
Our statistical model makes Spisska Nova Ves the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Spisska Nova Ves 38%, draw 36%, Bardejov 26%.
Will both teams score in Spisska Nova Ves vs Bardejov?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Spisska Nova Ves vs Bardejov?
Expected goals are 0.89 for Spisska Nova Ves and 0.64 for Bardejov — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Spisska Nova Ves vs Bardejov?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (22%). Double chance for Spisska Nova Ves or draw is 75%.