Sport Boys vs ADT Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Sport Boys vs ADT
Model pick: Sport Boys (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.22 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sport Boys | ADT |
|---|
| League position | #12 (20 pts) | #11 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
*Sport Boys shown at home, ADT shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sport Boys — last 5
DLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
ADT — last 5
LWDWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sport Boys (home) | ADT (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% |
| Top scorer | Luciano Nequecaur (5) | Jonatan Bauman (4) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.22 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sport Boys or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — ADT or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Sport Boys clean sheet | 34% |
| ADT clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sport Boys is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Sport Boys are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sport Boys vs ADT — FAQ
Who will win Sport Boys vs ADT?
Our statistical model makes Sport Boys the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Sport Boys 38%, draw 29%, ADT 33%.
Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs ADT?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sport Boys vs ADT?
Expected goals are 1.22 for Sport Boys and 1.09 for ADT — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sport Boys vs ADT?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Sport Boys or draw is 67%.