Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 01:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima
Model pick: Alianza Lima (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.85 – 1.4
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sport Boys | Alianza Lima |
|---|
| League position | #12 (20 pts) | #1 (43 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.4 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Sport Boys shown at home, Alianza Lima shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sport Boys — last 5
LWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Alianza Lima — last 5
DLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sport Boys (home) | Alianza Lima (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Luciano Nequecaur (5) | – |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.85 vs 1.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Sport Boys or draw (1X) | 50% |
| Double chance — Alianza Lima or draw (X2) | 77% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Sport Boys clean sheet | 25% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alianza Lima is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Alianza Lima edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima — FAQ
Who will win Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima?
Our statistical model makes Alianza Lima the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Sport Boys 26%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 45%.
Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima?
Expected goals are 0.85 for Sport Boys and 1.4 for Alianza Lima — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Sport Boys or draw is 50%.