Sport Huancayo vs Atlético Grau Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Sport Huancayo vs Atlético Grau
Model pick: Sport Huancayo (45%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.45 – 1.03
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sport Huancayo | Atlético Grau |
|---|
| League position | #17 (16 pts) | #13 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.6 |
*Sport Huancayo shown at home, Atlético Grau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sport Huancayo — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Atlético Grau — last 5
DLLWW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sport Huancayo (home) | Atlético Grau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 42% |
| Top scorer | Yorleys Mena (5) | – |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.45 vs 1.03):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sport Huancayo or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Atlético Grau or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Sport Huancayo clean sheet | 36% |
| Atlético Grau clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sport Huancayo is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Sport Huancayo are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sport Huancayo vs Atlético Grau — FAQ
Who will win Sport Huancayo vs Atlético Grau?
Our statistical model makes Sport Huancayo the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Sport Huancayo 45%, draw 28%, Atlético Grau 28%.
Will both teams score in Sport Huancayo vs Atlético Grau?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sport Huancayo vs Atlético Grau?
Expected goals are 1.45 for Sport Huancayo and 1.03 for Atlético Grau — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sport Huancayo vs Atlético Grau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Sport Huancayo or draw is 73%.