Sport Recife vs América Mineiro Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 24, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Sport Recife vs América Mineiro
Model pick: Sport Recife (52%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 0.87
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sport Recife | América Mineiro |
|---|
| League position | #6 (35 pts) | #19 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.6 |
*Sport Recife shown at home, América Mineiro shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sport Recife — last 5
DDDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
América Mineiro — last 5
DLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sport Recife (home) | América Mineiro (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-7-1 in 12 (1.6 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-2-8 in 11 (0.7 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Barletta Chrystian (8) | – |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 0.87):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sport Recife or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — América Mineiro or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 42% |
| América Mineiro clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sport Recife is the model's most likely outcome at
52%. Sport Recife are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sport Recife vs América Mineiro — FAQ
Who will win Sport Recife vs América Mineiro?
Our statistical model makes Sport Recife the most likely result at 52%. Full probabilities: Sport Recife 52%, draw 26%, América Mineiro 22%.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs América Mineiro?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sport Recife vs América Mineiro?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Sport Recife and 0.87 for América Mineiro — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sport Recife vs América Mineiro?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Sport Recife or draw is 80%.