Sport Recife vs Cuiabá Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Jul 27, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Sport Recife vs Cuiabá
Model pick: Sport Recife (56%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.77 – 0.84
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sport Recife | Cuiabá |
|---|
| League position | #8 (28 pts) | #13 (24 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 30% | 22% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.2 | 0.8 / 1.0 |
*Sport Recife shown at home, Cuiabá shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sport Recife — last 5
LLDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Cuiabá — last 5
WWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sport Recife (home) | Cuiabá (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-6-1 in 10 (1.6 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-4-3 in 9 (0.7 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 33% |
| Top scorer | Barletta Chrystian (8) | – |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.77 vs 0.84):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sport Recife or draw (1X) | 83% |
| Double chance — Cuiabá or draw (X2) | 41% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 43% |
| Cuiabá clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sport Recife is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Sport Recife are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Sport Recife vs Cuiabá — FAQ
Who will win Sport Recife vs Cuiabá?
Our statistical model makes Sport Recife the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Sport Recife 56%, draw 25%, Cuiabá 20%.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Cuiabá?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sport Recife vs Cuiabá?
Expected goals are 1.77 for Sport Recife and 0.84 for Cuiabá — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sport Recife vs Cuiabá?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Sport Recife or draw is 83%.