Sport Recife vs Londrina Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Sport Recife vs Londrina
Model pick: Sport Recife (61%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.01 – 0.79
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sport Recife | Londrina |
|---|
| League position | #7 (32 pts) | #17 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 27% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Sport Recife shown at home, Londrina shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sport Recife — last 5
DDDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Londrina — last 5
WDDLL
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sport Recife (home) | Londrina (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-7-1 in 11 (1.5 / 1.2 goals per game) | 2-2-6 in 10 (1.2 / 1.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Barletta Chrystian (8) | Santos Bruno (10) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.01 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Sport Recife or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Londrina or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 45% |
| Londrina clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sport Recife is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Sport Recife are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sport Recife vs Londrina — FAQ
Who will win Sport Recife vs Londrina?
Our statistical model makes Sport Recife the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Sport Recife 61%, draw 23%, Londrina 16%.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Londrina?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sport Recife vs Londrina?
Expected goals are 2.01 for Sport Recife and 0.79 for Londrina — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sport Recife vs Londrina?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Sport Recife or draw is 86%.