Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta
Model pick: Sport Recife (65%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.08 – 0.7
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sport Recife | Ponte Preta |
|---|
| League position | #8 (38 pts) | #20 (10 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 2.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 8% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 0.2 / 2.6 |
*Sport Recife shown at home, Ponte Preta shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sport Recife — last 5
WWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 38% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Ponte Preta — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sport Recife (home) | Ponte Preta (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-7-1 in 13 (1.7 / 1.1 goals per game) | 1-0-11 in 12 (0.6 / 2.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 38% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 38% |
| Top scorer | Perotti Pedro (9) | – |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.08 vs 0.7):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sport Recife or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Ponte Preta or draw (X2) | 30% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 50% |
| Ponte Preta clean sheet | 12% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sport Recife is the model's most likely outcome at
65%. Sport Recife are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta — FAQ
Who will win Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Our statistical model makes Sport Recife the most likely result at 65%. Full probabilities: Sport Recife 65%, draw 22%, Ponte Preta 14%.
Will both teams score in Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
Expected goals are 2.08 for Sport Recife and 0.7 for Ponte Preta — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (13%). Double chance for Sport Recife or draw is 89%.