Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven Prediction & Preview
Pro League (Belgium) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRO LEAGUE (BELGIUM)
Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven
Model pick: Sporting Charleroi (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 0.92
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sporting Charleroi | OH Leuven |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #2 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.2 | 2.6 / 2.8 |
*Sporting Charleroi shown at home, OH Leuven shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sporting Charleroi — last 5
DLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
OH Leuven — last 5
WWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sporting Charleroi (home) | OH Leuven (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 57% |
| Top scorer | Aurelien Scheidler (9) | Sory Kaba (6) |
Pro League (Belgium) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Pro League (Belgium) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 0.92):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Sporting Charleroi or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — OH Leuven or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Sporting Charleroi clean sheet | 40% |
| OH Leuven clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sporting Charleroi is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Sporting Charleroi are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven — FAQ
Who will win Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model makes Sporting Charleroi the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Sporting Charleroi 50%, draw 27%, OH Leuven 23%.
Will both teams score in Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Sporting Charleroi and 0.92 for OH Leuven — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sporting Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Sporting Charleroi or draw is 77%.