Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise Prediction & Preview
Pro League (Belgium) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRO LEAGUE (BELGIUM)
Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise
Model pick: Union Saint-Gilloise (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.8 – 1.45
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sporting Charleroi | Union Saint-Gilloise |
|---|
| League position | #1 (12 pts) | #6 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.5 / 0.5 | 5.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 1.4 |
*Sporting Charleroi shown at home, Union Saint-Gilloise shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sporting Charleroi — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Union Saint-Gilloise — last 5
DWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sporting Charleroi (home) | Union Saint-Gilloise (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (5.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 51% |
| Top scorer | Aurelien Scheidler (9) | – |
Pro League (Belgium) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Pro League (Belgium) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.8 vs 1.45):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Sporting Charleroi or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Union Saint-Gilloise or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Sporting Charleroi clean sheet | 23% |
| Union Saint-Gilloise clean sheet | 45% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Union Saint-Gilloise is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Union Saint-Gilloise edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise — FAQ
Who will win Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
Our statistical model makes Union Saint-Gilloise the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Sporting Charleroi 22%, draw 28%, Union Saint-Gilloise 50%.
Will both teams score in Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
Expected goals are 0.8 for Sporting Charleroi and 1.45 for Union Saint-Gilloise — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sporting Charleroi vs Union Saint-Gilloise?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Sporting Charleroi or draw is 48%.