Sporting CP II vs Chaves Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Sporting CP II vs Chaves
Model pick: Sporting CP II (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 0.95
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sporting CP II | Chaves |
|---|
| League position | #6 (3 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 2.2 |
*Sporting CP II shown at home, Chaves shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sporting CP II — last 5
LDDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 62% of home games go over 2.5.
Chaves — last 5
WLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sporting CP II (home) | Chaves (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Leonardo Vonic (4) | – |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Sporting CP II or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Chaves or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Sporting CP II clean sheet | 39% |
| Chaves clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sporting CP II is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Sporting CP II are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sporting CP II vs Chaves — FAQ
Who will win Sporting CP II vs Chaves?
Our statistical model makes Sporting CP II the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Sporting CP II 37%, draw 29%, Chaves 35%.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP II vs Chaves?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sporting CP II vs Chaves?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Sporting CP II and 0.95 for Chaves — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sporting CP II vs Chaves?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Sporting CP II or draw is 70%.