Sporting CP II vs Farense Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Sporting CP II vs Farense
Model pick: Sporting CP II (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.99 – 0.85
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sporting CP II | Farense |
|---|
| League position | #6 (6 pts) | #2 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 0.0 | 3.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Sporting CP II shown at home, Farense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sporting CP II — last 5
DLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
Farense — last 5
DLWWD
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sporting CP II (home) | Farense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (1.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Leonardo Vonic (4) | – |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.99 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Sporting CP II or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Farense or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Sporting CP II clean sheet | 43% |
| Farense clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sporting CP II is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Sporting CP II are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sporting CP II vs Farense — FAQ
Who will win Sporting CP II vs Farense?
Our statistical model makes Sporting CP II the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Sporting CP II 36%, draw 31%, Farense 33%.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP II vs Farense?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sporting CP II vs Farense?
Expected goals are 0.99 for Sporting CP II and 0.85 for Farense — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sporting CP II vs Farense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (16%). Double chance for Sporting CP II or draw is 70%.