Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction & Preview
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 19:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PORTUGUESE LIGA (PORTUGAL)
Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes
Model pick: Sporting CP (77%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.63 – 0.71
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sporting CP | Vitoria Guimaraes |
|---|
| League position | #7 (16 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.8 / 0.8 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Sporting CP shown at home, Vitoria Guimaraes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sporting CP — last 5
LWWWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 54% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Vitoria Guimaraes — last 5
WDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sporting CP (home) | Vitoria Guimaraes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-0-0 in 4 (2.8 / 0.8 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 54% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Luis Suarez (5) | – |
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.59
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Portuguese Liga (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.63 vs 0.71):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Sporting CP or draw (1X) | 92% |
| Double chance — Vitoria Guimaraes or draw (X2) | 22% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 86% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Sporting CP clean sheet | 49% |
| Vitoria Guimaraes clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sporting CP is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. Sporting CP are backed at home, where they average 2.3 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes — FAQ
Who will win Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Our statistical model makes Sporting CP the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: Sporting CP 77%, draw 15%, Vitoria Guimaraes 8%.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
Expected goals are 2.63 for Sporting CP and 0.71 for Vitoria Guimaraes — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sporting CP vs Vitoria Guimaraes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (12%). Double chance for Sporting CP or draw is 92%.