Sporting Jax vs Indy Eleven Prediction & Preview
USL 1 (USA) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL 1 (USA)
Sporting Jax vs Indy Eleven
Model pick: Indy Eleven (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.9 – 1.67
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sporting Jax | Indy Eleven |
|---|
| League position | #13 (8 pts) | #7 (22 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 3.1 | 0.6 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 11% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 2.8 | 0.4 / 1.8 |
*Sporting Jax shown at home, Indy Eleven shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sporting Jax — last 5
LWDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Indy Eleven — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sporting Jax (home) | Indy Eleven (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-3-5 in 9 (1.8 / 3.1 goals per game) | 0-2-6 in 8 (0.6 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 33% |
USL 1 (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these USL 1 (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.9 vs 1.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Sporting Jax or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Indy Eleven or draw (X2) | 56% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| Sporting Jax clean sheet | 19% |
| Indy Eleven clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Indy Eleven is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Indy Eleven edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sporting Jax vs Indy Eleven — FAQ
Who will win Sporting Jax vs Indy Eleven?
Our statistical model makes Indy Eleven the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Sporting Jax 31%, draw 24%, Indy Eleven 45%.
Will both teams score in Sporting Jax vs Indy Eleven?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sporting Jax vs Indy Eleven?
Expected goals are 1.9 for Sporting Jax and 1.67 for Indy Eleven — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sporting Jax vs Indy Eleven?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Sporting Jax or draw is 66%.