Sporting San José vs Alajuelense Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Costa Rica) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 02:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COSTA RICA)
Sporting San José vs Alajuelense
Model pick: Alajuelense (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.88 – 1.3
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sporting San José | Alajuelense |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #3 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
*Sporting San José shown at home, Alajuelense shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sporting San José — last 5
LWLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Alajuelense — last 5
WDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sporting San José (home) | Alajuelense (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 51% |
| Top scorer | – | Santiago van der Putten (1) |
Primera Division (Costa Rica) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Primera Division (Costa Rica) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.88 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Sporting San José or draw (1X) | 54% |
| Double chance — Alajuelense or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Sporting San José clean sheet | 27% |
| Alajuelense clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Alajuelense is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Alajuelense edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sporting San José vs Alajuelense — FAQ
Who will win Sporting San José vs Alajuelense?
Our statistical model makes Alajuelense the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Sporting San José 26%, draw 29%, Alajuelense 44%.
Will both teams score in Sporting San José vs Alajuelense?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Sporting San José vs Alajuelense?
Expected goals are 0.88 for Sporting San José and 1.3 for Alajuelense — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sporting San José vs Alajuelense?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Sporting San José or draw is 54%.