Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteño Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Paraguay) · Aug 08, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PARAGUAY)
Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteño
Model pick: Cerro Porteño (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.85 – 1.56
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Sportivo Ameliano | Cerro Porteño |
|---|
| League position | #9 (137 pts) | #1 (197 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
*Sportivo Ameliano shown at home, Cerro Porteño shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Sportivo Ameliano — last 5
LDDDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 30% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Cerro Porteño — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 36% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Sportivo Ameliano (home) | Cerro Porteño (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 30% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 47% |
| Top scorer | Elvio Vera (6) | Pablo Vegetti (3) |
Primera Division (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.52
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.85 vs 1.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Sportivo Ameliano or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — Cerro Porteño or draw (X2) | 80% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Sportivo Ameliano clean sheet | 21% |
| Cerro Porteño clean sheet | 43% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cerro Porteño is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Despite playing away, Cerro Porteño edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteño — FAQ
Who will win Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteño?
Our statistical model makes Cerro Porteño the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Sportivo Ameliano 22%, draw 27%, Cerro Porteño 51%.
Will both teams score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteño?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteño?
Expected goals are 0.85 for Sportivo Ameliano and 1.56 for Cerro Porteño — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Cerro Porteño?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Sportivo Ameliano or draw is 46%.